Today the UN decided to impose a military no fly zone over Libyan airspace as well as a restricted zone in Libyan waters. Most people have heralded it as a victory for freedom and democracy and it quite rightly appears like one too. Cleverly the UN has authorised everything short of a full scale ground invasion. This way it cannot be blamed for the impending Libyan war of “liberation”. Colonel Gadaffi is an extremely proud dictator not a very morally likeable man but nevertheless he is extremely proud and stubborn. This means that he will not tolerate any foreign incursion into Libyan land, sea or air. Something which he has made very clear on a number of occasions. All it will take for a full scale ground invasion to be given credibility and legality is just for one NATO or UN allied plane or ship to be fired upon and taken down or just damaged. Something which seems very likely based on the stance taken by Gadaffi.
Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Km Jong of the DPRK have both, like Gadaffi, committed some very atrocious acts against their people where dissension has been brutally crushed. However no UN mandates have been signed or petitioned to action military action against these regimes. The only reason Gadaffi seems to have been singled is due to oil. Libya is a major exporter of oil and gas to western markets and has large reserves. Sound familiar does it? Remind you of another oil producing country? 8 years ago under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, Operation Iraqi Freedom was launched. 8 years and one million dead Iraqis later, progress has seen one dictator removed and replaced by a government seen by its people as corrupt, sleazy and incompetent and the general public no safer than they were 8 years ago under Saddam. 70 years the doomsday clock counted down to nuclear war, i fear today it counts down to operation “Libyan freedom” and all that awaits the Libyan people is a replica of Iraqi “freedom”.
After reading the above many people will no doubt be protesting that gadaffi gets everything he deserves. This i wholeheartedly agree with as he has done many things besides the current crackdown which has made him unfit to rule. However there is no reason to punish the people by aggravating a situation which can now only be described as a civil war and fuelling the xenophobic rants of the colonel. More than anything foreign intervention would just build support for gadaffi as his portrayal of the rebels as foreign puppets would just be proved right and this would just put the rebels in worse position than present. Gadaffi’s supporters claim that he is merely doing what any leader would do and that is merely defending against an armed insurrection to preserve national unity. In his mind, that may be how he sees it but there are better ways of preserving national unity than a brutal indiscriminate crackdown.
At this point the rebels hold a handful of towns in the east of Libya. Does this indicate either a lack of support or a lack of firepower or possibly even a combination of both? Whatever it is direct foreign intervention will only lead to greater instability and more deaths. I don’t claim to hold all the answers but one thing I do know is that pouring petrol on a fire doesn’t kill the flames, it just makes them stronger.
